(相關(guān)資料圖)

相較于7月FOMC會(huì)議聲明及鮑威爾新聞發(fā)布會(huì)，2023年8月16日公布的7月FOMC會(huì)議紀(jì)要釋放出了更多關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)，特別是通脹的討論。會(huì)議紀(jì)要整體基調(diào)偏鷹，本次會(huì)議紀(jì)要關(guān)于通脹的討論占據(jù)了較大篇幅，且多數(shù)與會(huì)者認(rèn)為通脹上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較大，或需要進(jìn)一步的緊縮。(mostparticipantscontinuedtoseesignificantupsideriskstoinflation,whichcouldrequirefurthertighteningofmonetarypolicy.Moreover,theadditionalmonetarypolicytighteningthatwouldbenecessitatedbyhigherormorepersistentinflation.)但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)后續(xù)對(duì)加息的態(tài)度或更趨謹(jǐn)慎，一些與會(huì)者提示緊縮的滯后性影響可能超預(yù)期，且強(qiáng)調(diào)平衡過(guò)度緊縮與緊縮不足的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。(…themacroeconomiceffectsofthetighteninginfinancialconditionssincethebeginningoflastyearcouldprovemoresubstantialthananticipated…withthestanceofmonetarypolicyinrestrictiveterritory,riskstotheachievementoftheCommittee’sgoalshadbecomemoretwosided,anditwasimportantthattheCommittee’sdecisionsbalancetheriskofaninadvertentovertighteningofpolicyagainstthecostofaninsufficienttightening.)

7月FOMC會(huì)議紀(jì)要要點(diǎn)概述

短期通脹及就業(yè)市場(chǎng)韌性使得年內(nèi)加息預(yù)期仍存

通脹存在上行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

委員會(huì)對(duì)于通脹整體判斷：盡管出現(xiàn)了放緩跡象，但是仍處于高位，且需要看到更多通脹繼續(xù)放緩證據(jù)。(Consumerpriceinflationcontinuedtoshowsignsofeasingbutremainedelevated.Participantsnotedtherecentreductionintotalandcoreinflationrates.However,theystressedthatinflationremainedunacceptablyhighandthatfurtherevidencewouldberequiredforthemtobeconfidentthatinflationwasclearlyonapathtowardtheCommittee’s2percentobjective)

通脹的韌性可能超過(guò)預(yù)期，且供給端沖擊也有可能導(dǎo)致通脹再度上行。(Riskstothestaff’sbaselineinflationforecastwereseenasskewedtotheupside,giventhepossibilitythatinflationdynamicswouldprovetobemorepersistentthanexpectedorthatfurtheradverseshockstosupplyconditionsmightoccur)我們?cè)凇稄闹芷谂c結(jié)構(gòu)角度重新拆解美國(guó)通脹》中指出，美國(guó)通脹受周期和結(jié)構(gòu)因素雙重影響，在未來(lái)整體將繼續(xù)放緩，但房租和能源項(xiàng)目在供應(yīng)端結(jié)構(gòu)性因素的影響下仍具韌性。而美國(guó)7月CPI數(shù)據(jù)也反映了我們的判斷，能源價(jià)格反彈或推動(dòng)CPI能源分項(xiàng)環(huán)比繼續(xù)走高；住房通脹雖存在滯后性，但回落進(jìn)展不及預(yù)期，以及剔除住房的核心服務(wù)通脹仍顯韌性，薪資上漲壓力或增強(qiáng)其粘性。